The trend of Bitcoin in 2025 is highly similar to that of 2022, with a correlation of 98%

The trend of Bitcoin (BTC) in 2025 and the bottom of the bear market in 2022 is highly similar, with a correlation of close to 100%. Internet economist Timothy Peterson pointed out that the performance of BTC this year is surprisingly similar to that in 2022, with a daily correlation of 80% and a monthly correlation of 98%.
November was one of the worst months for BTC price performance, with Peterson stating that the month’s performance was in the bottom 10% since 2015. Historical data shows that a "red" performance in November typically results in a similar decline in December.
Nonetheless, macro sentiment changes could bring about a classic “Christmas run” towards the end of the year. The data shows that since November 2024, equity funds have attracted $900 billion in new capital, while other asset classes have attracted only $100 billion. The Bitcoin ETF ended Thanksgiving week with $220 billion inflows and the Ether ETF saw $31.2 billion inflows, showing that the institutional selling may be over.